Annual global forecasts for malaria commodities to help global community navigate increasingly complex markets

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a profound impact on the availability of critical health products, including for diseases like malaria. Shipping has been severely disrupted, factories have been shuttered, and supplies of some malaria commodities, such as insecticides, insecticide-treated nets, treatments, and diagnostics, have been jeopardized. Now more than ever, visibility into demand, supply, and funding for malaria commodities is critical to navigating and circumventing anticipated product shortfalls. Accurate, transparent, and widely available short-and longer-term forecasts of commodity needs and demand, can enable manufacturers, distributors, donors, and other market participants to provide adequate supply and prepare for disruptions in the market.

To better navigate this increasingly complex malaria commodities market, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) awarded the Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI) a five-year grant to produce annual global forecasts for malaria commodities. These forecasts are intended to be a public resource for the broad global community including donors, manufacturers, and other stakeholders with an interest in the market landscape for these products. CHAI has assembled a consortium of partners to complete this work, including the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP), Innovative Vector Control Consortium (IVCC), the RBM Partnership to End Malaria (RBM), and Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV). The project is also supported by a Steering Committee including representatives from the Global Fund, the U.S. government’s President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI), the World Health Organization (WHO) Prequalification team (PQ), RBM, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), the Asia Pacific Leaders Malaria Alliance (APLMA), BMGF, Unitaid, MMV, the IVCC, Alliance for Malaria Prevention (AMP), FIND, the UK government’s Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and key opinion leaders among select national malaria programs.

The Global Malaria Commodities Forecasting Project’s projections for donor-funded malaria commodity procurements 2021-2024 can be found on RBM’s Global Malaria Dashboard, as well as a deep dive analysis on the market landscape for PBO-treated bed nets. These represent the first annual outputs of the project. The team is now working on longer-term (5-10 year) forecasts of need and demand, to be published by Q3 2022.

Contributing authors:

Salome Muchiri – Associate, Market Forecasting, Andrea Rowan – Independent contractor, Global Malaria, Tara Seethaler – Associate Director, Vector Control, Jess Floyd – Quantitative Epidemiologist, Senior Research Associate, Sebastian Salvador – Regional Senior Manager, Malaria Mesoamerica, Abigail Ward – Epidemiologist, Senior Technical Advisor

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